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Successfully running your architectural firm is, by definition, entrepreneurship. And that means personal responsibility. And so that also means a look at the months and years ahead. What can you expect as an entrepreneur in the construction industry? This summer the major banks, ABN AMRO, ING and Rabobank, once again presented their sector insights and reports. We put them side by side, studied them and compiled an overview exclusively for Archicomm readers.
The construction industry is slowly creeping - and the three banks agree - out of a difficult period. After the production decline of nearly 3% in 2024, ABN AMRO and ING see a cautious rebound. ABN AMRO expects growth of 1% at the end of this year and 2.5% in 2026, thanks in part to the rising number of new construction permits and rising demand for housing. ING is slightly more optimistic for 2025 with 1.5% growth, but sees structural bottlenecks such as the shortage of building land, complex procedures and grid congestion. Both banks stress that the recovery is unevenly distributed: residential construction is picking up, while non-residential construction and the installation sector are lagging.
According to ING, by 2025, contractors plan to raise prices en masse, mainly to offset rising labor costs. Material costs are stabilizing, but structural staff shortages remain a problem. ABN AMRO also sees that the tight labor market and rising costs could put a brake on growth. The shortage of professionals makes the sector vulnerable to further price pressure, which will directly affect architects and clients.
ABN AMRO points to the failing nitrogen policy and the lack of political progress. The bank hopes that a new cabinet will finally make up its mind so that permitting no longer stagnates. The fall of the Schoof cabinet may even be a bright spot, according to ABN AMRO, as the controversial freeze on social rents is off the table, which could stimulate investment by housing corporations.
ING, on the other hand, sees challenges mainly in licensing. The number of permits issued is already down in early 2025, which could put a brake on production in the years thereafter. The new Environment Act creates uncertainty, and the effect of policy measures - such as the designation of 24 ‘breakthrough sites’ - will only be felt in the longer term.
Rabobank looks further ahead and paints a transformative picture of construction until 2040. The bank emphasizes the need for circularity, prefabrication and digitization. The sector must switch to emission-free machines, reuse of materials and smart digital tools such as BIM and AI. Rabobank sees opportunities for architects in applying bio-based materials and circular designs, but warns against consolidation: smaller players are disappearing, and specialization is becoming increasingly important.
Whereas ABN AMRO and ING emphasize the short-term - with growth figures and permits - Rabobank focuses mainly on strategic trends. ABN AMRO is cautiously positive about housing recovery, while ING insists on structural obstacles and the limited growth of 70,000 new homes per year. Rabobank, on the other hand, sees a broader, technological and sustainable transition, in which architects can play a key role.
For architects, this means that 2025 will be a year of moderate recovery, with opportunities in residential construction but pressure on prices and margins. At the same time, it pays to look ahead: digitalization, prefabrication and circular concepts are becoming increasingly important. Those who capitalize on this now are not only building projects, but also future-proofing them.
Sources: sector reports and insights from ABN AMRO, ING and Rabobank, Summer 2025.
